Michael Osterholm, CIDRAP

Gems we can't let slip by ....
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Michael Osterholm, CIDRAP

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Dr. Michael Osterholm, Director, Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), University of Minnesota

"The same thing's gong to happen here in every city, town and village in this country as well. we're all going to need things at the same time, and there won't be any products ..."
March 22, 2006
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July 14, 2006

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"This the one topic that keeps me up at night"
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"It's not a theory or a worst-case Scenario. It is a sure thing. ..."
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Washington Post: Interview, October 9, 2005

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"But it is not something that occurs over a very short period of time and then we go into the recovery phase. A pandemic will literally unfold, like a slow-moving tsunami, over 12 to 18 months."
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October 19, 2006 Michael Osterholm

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"We're as worried now as we ever have been. H5N1 is the most powerful influenza virus we've seen in modern human history"
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Michael Osterholm November,2004

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"This is going to be the most catastrophic thing in my lifetime. When this situation unfolds, we will shut down global markets overnight. There will not be movement of goods; there will not be movement of people."
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Speaking on the Oprah Show, January 24/06

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  • " During a pandemic ...we will see a collapse of the global economy as we know it
    which means that we're going to run out of those things ...
    things like medical supplies, drugs, masks, whatever."
-- Michael T. Osterholm, Director, Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, speaking on the Oprah Show, January 24/06
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September 19 2005-Woodrow Wilson International Center

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The following quotes are taken from Michael Osterholm's Presentation on 9/19/05 at the Woodrow Wilson International Center :
Emerging Pandemic: Costs and Consequences of an Avian Influenza Outbreak
Dr. Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy; Helen Branswell, Medical Writer, Canadian Press

http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?f ... _id=142787#

“What do we do?” Osterholm asked. “From my perspective, we pray, plan, and practice…We have to plan as if this will happen tonight.”

'You’ll need the circulating virus to really get the ultimate protection just like annually we need … [snip] … So, that means We won’t even have the seed virus (to make a vaccine) until the pandemic begins, which if it should take 6 months we won’t even have any protection for most of that time period'.

‘Make no mistake about it …. [snip] …. Any county who has a plant within its borders, I am convinced will NOT allow that vaccine to leave that country’s boundaries.’

'In 1969, in this country, the average time from a casket being constructed to it’s being in the ground … the average was 6 months. Today, it’s a little over 2 ½ weeks. Today, we will run out of caskets overnight. Second of all, our crematorium capacity, in this county, is limited. We will find it very hard to process the number of bodies that we can expect to have. When that begins to happen, let me tell you, it adds a whole ‘nother dimension to the concept of fear & panic and what it means to know that we can’t even manage the bodies that come from a situation like this. Even with a relatively moderate pandemic.'

'You have no vaccine … you have no anti-viral drug … and I’ll point out in a moment you’ll have no mass for these people. Who’s gonna come to work? Where are they going to come to work? Right have gnawed our health care systems right down to the bone and we’re sucking calcium. The bottom line is we will be operating in gymnasiums, in community centers, wherever we can find space. And we have to wonder who’s going to show up for work. Would you show up for work, would your loved ones show up for work if they were being exposed to a life-threatening infection every day with virtually no protection'

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The third annual [i]Noel R. Peterson Founders Lecture Series

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http://www.postbulletin.com/newsmana...p?z=2&a=342839

Infectious diseases expert warns of chaos during pandemic flu
5/15/2008 9:15:02 AM

The third annual Noel R. Peterson Founders Lecture Series.
Power company workers, coal miners and others on the front lines handing basic services will be the most essential laborers during an outbreak . . .
Everyone in this room has a family, and pandemic preparedness is about what will happen to you and your loved ones,"[/b] . . . [snip] . . . don't expect the federal government to rescue you. Local readiness, even personal readiness, will decide how things go.

Millions will die. Thirty percent to 60 percent of the population will get sick, even in a modest outbreak, Osterholm said. A pandemic will be like a Hurricane Katrina happening all at once worldwide, with six- to eight-week waves of illness. Food, water, power, cellular and Internet service will be interrupted because stores, hospitals and even power companies use "just-in-time" supplies.

"The current national disaster response system will collapse in a minute," Osterholm said. He acknowledged he's like "Chicken Little." But he's been right before. And he's never been more sure in his life.

This is the one that I know is going to happen, and I fear desperately that the world is going to wake up one day and be surprised
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